THE SVOD SHAKEOUT REPORT: A massive media shakeout is on the horizon — here are the key trends, players, and how we think it will play out

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The streaming wars — the high-stakes competition among media and tech giants to attract subscribers or users to their streaming video services — have officially begun.

In the space of nine months between November 2019 and July 2020, four major subscription video services will have come to market from traditional US media companies and tech giants, with Disney, AT&T/WarnerMedia, and Comcast/NBCUniversal (NBCU) each having launched its own major branded streaming service: Disney+, HBO Max, and Peacock, respectively. And the increasingly services-oriented tech giant Apple entered the fray with the launch of Apple TV+ in November 2019. Along with existing players like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, and countless niche SVOD services, subscribers will be harder to attract than ever.

As consumers determine their preferred household entertainment mixes, a few dominant platforms will emerge as winners in the eventual shakeout — and the companies that win will likely be rewarded with stable positions in consumer households over the long term.

The rise of streaming services has helped generate a flood of easy-to-access, high-quality content, but it has also caused market fragmentation that could confuse and fatigue consumers. In this crowded field, achieving primacy in consumer households will become a growing imperative, as consumers limit the number of subscriptions they maintain and how much they're willing to pay for them. 

In The SVOD Shakeout Report, Business Insider Intelligence details how each new-to-market streaming video service is positioning itself and predicts how services will fare in the SVOD shakeout to come. 

The companies mentioned in this report are: 21st Century Fox, AT&T, Amazon, Apple, Charter Communications, Comcast, DirecTV, Discovery Inc., Epic Games, Facebook, Google, Hulu, Lucasfilm, Marvel, NBCUniversal, Netflix, Pixar, Pluto TV, Quibi, Roku, Scripps Networks Interactive, Sony, The Walt Disney Co., Twitter, Verizon, ViacomCBS, WarnerMedia, WndrCo., YouTube.

Here are a few key takeaways from the report:

• While the average streaming household is willing to subscribe to more than one service, there's likely to be a ceiling on the number of subscriptions a given household will pay for — and how much each will pay. In the US, SVOD subs average 2.8 services, per Ampere Analysis, or 3.4, according to Vindicia. Further, three-quarters (75%) of Americans aren't willing to pay more than $30 a month for streaming TV services, per The Trade Desk/YouGov.
• As appealing new services come to market, it's possible that households will expand their SVOD budgets to add new services — but they could also choose to cut existing subscriptions. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of US respondents who intend on subscribing to new a new video service from among new entrants said they would terminate or downgrade one or more of their existing subscriptions in order to make room for a new one, per PwC.
• In the battles over consumer attention and subscription dollars, content, and talent, each new-to-market service has its own strengths and weaknesses. For example, we expect Disney+ to rapidly grow subscribers thanks to its globally recognizable IP, rapid international expansion, ability to bundle domestically with Hulu and ESPN+, and cross-ecosystem marketing synergies. 

In full, the report:

• Analyzes the market forces that have led traditional media and distribution to direct-to-consumer (DTC) streaming and how those forces have radically reshaped the landscape.
• Discusses why the transition to DTC is a necessary risk for legacy players, and why it's a less risky proposition for tech giants.
• Identifies the key market challenges for all SVOD services on the market, the approaches aimed at mitigating those challenges, and the primary attributes of successful services.
• Examines the go-to-market strategies for new-to-market streaming services and how each is positioned, presenting the dominant advantages and potential challenges of Disney+, HBO Max, Apple TV+, and Peacock.
• Predicts how major services will fare in the streaming wars and expected shakeout to come, including for the aforementioned new entrants and streaming incumbents Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Hulu.
• Contains 71 pages and 38 figures.

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